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Thursday, 29 July 2010 21:15 |
* Euro trades above $1.31 for first time since early May
* Focus now on whether euro can climb above $1.3125
* Investors buy euros before month-end
 The euro hit a 12-week high against a broadly weaker dollar on Thursday as month-end demand helped pushed the single currency above a key technical barrier.
A jump in euro zone economic sentiment to a 28-month high and a decline in German unemployment supported the euro's gains.
This contrasted with recent weak data from the United States that has weighed broadly on the dollar, with investors mindful that figures on Friday are expected to show slower economic growth in the country in the second quarter.
"Economic resilience in Europe, particularly in Germany, despite the formidable sovereign credit headwinds, continues to fuel an unwinding of bets against the euro and push it higher across the board," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange, in Washington, D.C.
But Esiner warned that while the euro is likely to enjoy continued support over the near-term, especially if U.S. data remains weak, its gains may prove limited if concerns about a slowing U.S. economy widen to include the broader global economy.
In morning trading in New York, the euro was up 0.8 percent at $1.3094, its strongest since May 4. The single currency briefly traded at $1.3106. Traders said gains accelerated once the euro went above $1.3050.
"There are a lot of orders in the $1.3050 area which had been targeted. When those were triggered it made for a higher euro/dollar," said Lutz Karpowitz, strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
Market participants said demand for euros from an Asian central bank in early European trade had sparked wider demand for the single currency, helping push the dollar to a three-month low versus a currency basket. The dollar index fell 0.7 percent to 81.535.
The euro has risen around 7 percent versus the dollar this month. A upcoming trading target for the single currency is seen at $1.3125, the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the peak-to-trough move from November 2009 to June.
Comments by a top Moody's Investors Services sovereign analyst on the U.S. worsening debt situation may have contributed to selling in the dollar, some traders said.
Steve Hess, a senior credit officer at Moody's, told Dow Jones Newswires the U.S. government needs to elaborate a credible plan to address its soaring debt in order to maintain its Aaa credit rating.
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Fundamental
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Thursday, 29 July 2010 19:37 |
-US JOBLESS CLAIMS FELL TO 457,000 JULY 24 WEEK (CONSENSUS 459,000) FROM 468,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 464,000)
-US JOBLESS CLAIMS 4-WK AVG FELL TO 452,500 JULY 24 WEEK FROM 457,000 PRIOR WEEK (PREVIOUS 456,000)
-US CONTINUED CLAIMS ROSE TO 4.565 MLN (CON. 4.550 MLN) JULY 17 WEEK FROM 4.484 MLN PRIOR (PREV 4.487 MLN)
-US INSURED UNEMPLOYMENT RATE ROSE TO 3.6 PCT JULY 17 WEEK FROM 3.5 PCT PRIOR WEEK (PREV 3.5 PCT)
-TABLE-U.S. jobless claims fell in latest week
 New U.S. claims for unemployment benefits fell slightly more than expected last week, government data showed on Thursday, offering a ray of hope for the anemic labor market recovery.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 11,000 to a seasonally adjusted 457,000 in the week ended July 24, the Labor Department said.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast claims slipping to 459,000 from the previously reported 464,000 the prior week, which was revised slightly up to 468,000 in Thursday's report.
The four-week average of new jobless claims, seen as a better measure of underlying labor market trends, fell 4,500 to 452,500.
A Labor Department official described the report as "fairly straight forward." Jobless claims have not fallen much this year and remain above levels that analysts say are consistent with sustained jobs growth.
Sluggish jobs growth remains the biggest obstacle to the economy's recovery from its longest and deepest recession since the 1930s, which showed signs of slowing down in the last couple of months.
The government is expected to report on Friday that growth slowed to a 2.5 percent annual rate in the April-June period from a 2.7 percent pace in the first three months of the year.
In the week ended July 17, 4.57 million people were still receiving benefits after an initial week of aid, up 81,000 from the prior week. The continuing claims data covered the survey period for the government's July household survey from which the national unemployment rate is derived.
Analysts polled by Reuters had forecast so-called continuing claims increasing to 4.55 million.REUTERS.(AR) |
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Commodity
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Thursday, 29 July 2010 19:03 |
* European buying remains slack
* SPDR gold ETF sees biggest q-day outflow since April 2008
* Euro, equities climb, reflecting sharper risk appetite
 Gold firmed in Europe on Thursday as some buyers were tempted back to the market by the precious metal's fall to three-month lows, while the weaker dollar also helped support prices.
European investment remained lacklustre as risk appetite sharpened, however, while the world's largest gold-backed exchange traded fund reported a hefty outflow on Wednesday.
Spot gold was bid at $1,165.25 an ounce at 1131 GMT, against $1,162.55 late in New York on Wednesday, recovering from a three-month low of $1,156.90 reached that day. U.S. gold futures for August delivery rose $4.50 to $1,164.90.
"The risk of further liquidation in gold in the short term remains given current risk appetite," said Anne-Laure Tremblay, an analyst at BNP Paribas.
"Redemptions in gold ETFs and in net non-commercial futures positions have been illustrating waning interest for the precious metal. At current price levels, however, physical gold demand is supportive."
Traders reported good buying for a fourth day in major gold consumer India, as they stocked up ahead of festivals in the subcontinent. Gold hit a record $1,264.90 an ounce last month as investors flocked to the precious metal to protect against sovereign debt problems in countries like Greece and Portugal, but it has since failed to maintain those highs.
Investment demand for physical bullion in Europe has softened as concerns over the stability of the financial system recede. This is set to keep prices under pressure.
"Physical investment in the continental European market is very, very quiet," said Wolfgang Wrzesniok-Rossbach, head of sales at Heraeus. "It is not a mass market at the moment."
He said the company had the highest turnover in gold ever in May, but that sales volumes had dropped off significantly in July. "There was clearly a Greece effect this year that led from February onwards until May."
The world's largest gold ETF, the SPDR Gold Trust , said its holdings fell by 18.55 tonnes on Wednesday, their biggest one-day drop since April 2008. [GOL/SPDR]
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Fundamental
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Thursday, 29 July 2010 14:40 |
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 Rilis data indikator ekonomi siang ini, dari negara Bagian Eropa. EUR French Producer Prices (MoM) (JUN) dilaporkan tidak mengalami perubahan.
EUR French Producer Prices dirilis stagnan diangka 0,0%. Sebelumnya ekonom mempredikisi Indikator ini akan mengalami kenaikan diangka 0,3% dari periode sebelumnya yang tercatat diangka 0,0%.
Sementara jika ditinjau secara YoY, berada diangka 3.5% dalam setahun, sedikit di bahwa estimasi para ekonom, berdasarkan data dari lembaga statistik nasional Insee pada hari ini.Sebelumnya ekonomi memproyeksikan indikator ini akan mengalami penurunan diangka 3,9% dari periode sebelumnya di 4,3%.
Sementara itu, Insee mencatat pada harga produk manufaktur tertentu harga bergerak flat di bulan Juni, setelah melesat 0.4% di bulan Mei.
Harga produk industri impor naik 0.7% di bulan Juni seiring melorotnya euro terhadap dolar terdorong kenaikan harga minyak dan manufaktur, ungkap Insee.
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Currency
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Thursday, 29 July 2010 19:11 |
* Euro hits 11-wk high $1.3091, $1.3050 barriers broken
* Dollar index hits three-month low 81.535
* Focus on whether euro can climb above $1.3125
* Investors buy euros before mth-end; eurozone data supports
 The euro hit an 11-week high against a broadly weak dollar on Thursday as month-end demand for the single currency helped push it above a key barrier.
The euro remained supported by firm euro zone data, with figures on Thursday showing euro zone economic sentiment jumping to a 28-month high, while German unemployment declined for the 13th consecutive month. This contrasted with recent weak data out of the U.S. which has weighed broadly on the dollar, with investors mindful that figures on Friday are expected to show slower economic growth in the country in the second quarter.
Market participants said demand for euros from an Asian central bank in early European trade had sparked wider demand for the single currency, helping push the dollar to a three-month low versus a currency basket.
"Data in the euro zone for now is pretty resilient and at the margins that argues for euro/dollar to edge higher, though people are pretty cautious at these levels," said Tom Levinson, currency strategist at ING.
By 1137 GMT, the euro was up 0.6 percent at $1.3075, just shy of a high of $1.3091, its strongest since May 10. Traders said stop-loss orders were triggered above $1.3050, accelerating the currency's gains, with options barriers seen at $1.3100.
"There are a lot of orders in the $1.3050 area which had been targeted. When those were triggered it made for a higher euro/dollar," said Lutz Karpowitz, strategist at Commerzbank in Frankfurt.
So far this month, the euro has risen around 7 percent versus the dollar. Investors are now focusing on whether it can rally to $1.3125, the 38.2 percent Fibonacci retracement of the peak-to-trough move from November 2009 to June.
Gains in the euro helped push the dollar down to 81.535 versus a currency basket, its weakest since late April.
Some in the market said California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger's announcement that the state was in a state of emergency over its finances was another reason to dump the dollar as it highlighted the country's fiscal problems.
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Fundamental
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Thursday, 29 July 2010 15:34 |
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 Sebagian besar pasar saham di Asia mengalami koreksi, setelah bukti baru dari pertumbuhan ekonomi Amerika Serikat (AS) lambat, sehingga investor kembali cemas atas pemulihan ekonomi global nantinya.
Seperti dikutip dari Associated Press, Kamis (28/7/2010), Federal Reserve (The Fed) mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi di AS stabil selama musim panas di beberapa kota, namun melambat di daerah yang lain seperti di Atlanta dan Chicago.
Survei ini menyusul laporan Departemen Perdagangan AS yang menunjukkan pesanan barang tahan lama turun satu persen pada Juni. Hasil tersebut jauh dari ekspektasi para ekonom, yang mengharapkan keuntungan di kisaran satu persen. Tetapi beberapa analis percaya terlalu pesimistis untuk memprediksi bahwa AS akan tergelincir ke dalam resesi.
"Kami tidak percaya dalam resesi double-dip di AS. Ekonomi global akan terus berantakan meskipun dan itu tidak latar belakang yang buruk bagi ekuitas global," kata Asia Pasifik kepala investasi Stephen Corry, untuk Merrill Lynch Wealth Management.
Bursa saham Tokyo turun pada hari Kamis (28/07) dengan aksi profit taking pada sesi sebelumnya, meski dengan loss yang terbatas oleh meningkatnya earnings dan revisi outlook dari Nippon Yusen dan perusahaan jasa pengiriman ternama lainnya.
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Fundamental
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Thursday, 29 July 2010 12:05 |
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 Yen melanjutkan penguatannya terhadap dollar dan euro karena indikasi pemulihan ekonomi global melambat, mendorong permintaan akan mata uang Jepang itu sebagai safe haven.
Yen menguat terhadap 16 mata uang dunia karena laporan ekonomi the Fed dan data durable goods orders AS yang menegaskan perlambatan ekonomi AS. Situasi ini menekan sentimen pasar.
Dalam laporan yang tertuang di Beige Book, the Fed mengatakan pertumbuhan ekonomi di bebeapa kawasan AS melambat dalam dua bulan terakhir, tertekan oleh properti komersial dan habisnya program insentif pajak untuk pembeli rumah.
Hal ini menegaskan pandangan the Fed bahwa tingkat pemulihan ekonomi melambat. Hal ini juga mendukung langkah the Fed yang menurunkan proyeksi PDB AS tahun ini dan depan.Beige Book adalah rangkuman kondisi ekonomi di 12 kawasan atau distrik the Fed. Beige Book edisi bulan ini menggambarkan pemulihan yang melambat dan kondisi sektor perumahan yang semakin lesu.
Pair USD/JPY saat ini berada dikisaran 87.15 setelah pada akhir perdagangan dipasar New York dini hari ditutup diposisi 87.45. Pagi tadi telah dirilis data retail sales y/y Jepang untuk periode Juni 2010 yang tercatat meningkat 3,2%, lebih baik dari periode sebelumnya 2,8%. Namun penguatan Yen diperkirakan lebih diakibatkan oleh melambatnya pemulihan ekonomi AS yang tercermin dari kembali buruknya hasil data ekonomi AS minggu ini, sehingga aset safe haven Yen makin diminati.
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Last Updated on Thursday, 29 July 2010 12:10 |
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